Actually, here there is just one important fact: Osama bin Laden is dead.
The first and obvious point is that this does not end the War on Terror. There are a lot of reasons as to why this is the case, but suffice to say in a quick post that this isn’t like GI Joe finally took down Cobra. The Global War on Terror is comprised of many different strategic facets. In the short term, the risk of terrorism may actually have significantly increased.
My co-Duck blogger, Charli Carpenter has dismissed the significance of this:
My immediate take: they've done a masterful job at playing the media and making a huge story and enormous nationalistic success out of a single operation in a vast and endless war, that apparently will have no impact on our foreign policy.
I agree and disagree. As I said above, this probably won't have huge War on Terror strategic implications (other than a heightened risk of terrorism in the West). However, I also think there are some important things to consider that make this more of a significant event than what Charli is perhaps implying.
First, if bin Laden was where they say he was (some kind of military town?) I think the Pakistani’s will have some explaining to do as to why they hadn’t found him earlier. I mean, this wasn’t exactly a cave – or maybe a strategy to hide in plain sight? I think there may be some significant fallout for US-Pakistani cooperation - something that already wasn't fantastic.
Second, and importantly I think that this is a symbol (rightly or wrongly) that the US will pursue those who commit terrorist acts. It may make removing troops (rightly or wrongly) easier; certainly easier than it would be if bin Laden was still alive. That shadow (one of many) is at least no longer a concern.
Finaly, as CNN's Ben Wedeman tweeted out today: "Dictators and tyrants will surely miss #osamabinladen: he was such a great excuse for repression."
(Possibly)… More to come…
