Less than Zero: Canada and the Arab Spring (and why it matters, darn it!)

Couldn't we at least send face paint?

Yesterday I pontificated on and speculated a bit about Canada and the Arab Spring. The main points of my rant argument were:

• Canada has been slower than its allies to express support for the Arab Spring
• Canada has not articulated any kind of policy towards the Arab Spring despite its leadership in the Libyan mission.
• Canada should express unequivocal support for peaceful democratic transition, condemn attacks and violence against peaceful protesters and feel free to make its views known if it would seem that any of these transitions take on an illiberal/dangerous character.

Anything else that Canada could contribute in terms of money or support would be good. And it was speculated yesterday that Harper would lay out more of a vision as to what Canada’s response would be.

So what happened? 

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Six Months later, Canada develops a policy on the Arab Spring

The Globe and Mail is reporting that Stephen Harper is going to use the G8 summit to define his government’s position on the Arab Spring. Way to go guys! Only 6 months after the fact. Glad to see the Government of Canada taking the most important developments in the structure of international politics since 1989 so epically seriously.

What we still don’t know is whether Harper will actively or tepidly support the Arab Spring.

A couple of quick thoughts.

First, I don’t think Harper has any problems with carving out his own stance on the issue. He was clearly out of step with all of his Western allies (and other Canadian political parties) with his very lukewarm support for the Egyptian protestors – a stance clearly inspired by Harper’s strong support and concern for Israel’s security.

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2011 Canadian Election Results explained

The best explanation of the Canadian election so far - via Saideman's Semi-Spew

I, for one, am happy to come from Scared White People Land.

Seeing the Smartphone for the Electorate: The Mace on CPC Strategy

The Mace has an interesting post on why the Conservatives have campaigned rather poorly - despite having more money and resources than any other party. I'll quote at length because it's pretty sharp and very good:

Conservative strategists are utter imbeciles when it comes to opening their war chest to the cheapest and most effective counterbalance to the danger of an ignited 34-44 demographic, the second largest growing social media participant group. That counterbalance is targeted online advertising.

The Conservative advertising strategy throughout the campaign has been a heavy emphasis on massive blanket TV spots. Fine. Television is the heart, the intestine, the lungs of campaign advertising. We have already talked about how their production machine has shifted mid-stride to confront the recent NDP surge. But social media is the new nervous system, the thyroid, and the pancreas. The Conservatives have demonstrated an inability to ascertain and respond to the strength of the NDP momentum, the new manifold on which people make decisions. Their response could have been swiftly accomplished through a noise campaign of massive facebook and YouTube blanket ads for pennies a glass. Their not doing so betrays their internally antiquated groupthink and focus on highly personal and creative attacks rather than a wide ranging public engagement strategy. When even the Chosen One is saying that the revival preacher is failing to connect to Canadians, the Conservatives could at least follow through on their cynicism backed by treasure and sprint back on a road of bones. NDP strategists should be congratulated for using their resources so effectively, especially given the obvious window by their generous counterparts.

By showing that they had no endgame strategy in the event their character assassination of Michael Ignatieff backfired by re-igniting complacent left wing voters, the Conservatives have exposed a conceit all their own. The blind trust they placed in their hatchet men has proven to be their undoing. The closed rallies, the barbs of the lurker scandal, all of this pales to an oversight that will have them kicking themselves in the months to come. With just under $20M probably spent so far in this campaign, an extra half million on an avalanche of impressions,5 second YouTube spots, and Google ads might have been the counterpunch they needed. Every time I see Conservative staffers on TV, they’re always huddled intensely, rattling away on their BlackBerries and their iPhones. It stuns me that so cunning and well resourced an organization cannot see the smart phone for the electorate. In this, the NDP has played the player, not the game.

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The 2011 Canadian Election: Lessons Learned and Mindless Amateur Speculation

Canadian democracy rests in this man's hands.

Cross-posted at Duck of Minerva. Because I like bothering the 95.6% non-Canadians on that site. 

Yesterday I provided a fully superficial background and survey of developments regarding the 2011 Canadian Election. The short version is 1) We’ve had a series of minority governments. 2) Stephen Harper probably thought he could get a majority, and now that does not seem likely though it is still possible. 3) The NDP has ‘surged’, probably at the Liberal’s expense, but also very much at the expense of the Quebec nationalist/separatist Bloc Party and possibly even that of the Tories (who may have expected disappointed Liberals to flock right rather than left.)

In other words – no one has any idea what is going to happen. ThreeHundredandEight has a post on what would happen if the parties achieved their ‘vote ceiling’ ie) how many seats they would get if everyone who says they are going to vote for them actually does. So a majority government for the Tories is still possible (they have a pretty dedicated party followers. One might say rabid, but that is unkind. Just don’t date any...)

So, based on the fact that we are in electoral terra incognita if the polls are right, what can we possibly say we have learned from the election?

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